Methodology
How we separate Street expectations, operating requirements, management, and business delivery — and when we say we do not know.
What Street says
Point-in-time Street revenue consensus (and, when available, explicit Street operating-KPI consensus). We do not invent consensus numbers.
What Street needs from the business
A Street revenue estimate is an outcome. Quarter Winner translates it into implied operating requirements using company-specific models (subscribers, bookings, GMS, DAUq, and so on). Ranges and confidence are shown when available — not false precision.
Model confidence
HIGH — the operating relationship is highly stable historically. MEDIUM — it validates historically with some variation. LOW — it passes minimum historical validation but carries meaningfully greater model uncertainty. LOW is still a passing model, not a failure.
Current Evidence
After the last earnings print, we look for verified public updates. Quantitative company disclosures may update canonical inputs only after verification. Management commentary and external context are shown as interpretation and do not change the operating math. Unverified items are not displayed.
Explicit vs implied Street
When analysts publish a direct KPI consensus, we compare it to what Street revenue implies for the business. Disagreement is diagnostic, not automatically bullish or bearish.
Management indicates
Direct quarter guidance is labeled separately from derived remaining-year implications. Qualitative commentary alone does not create a setup.
Business recently delivered
Latest eligible operating KPIs for the company's core drivers — selected from the driver profile, not a generic metric dump.
Consensus fragility
How vulnerable Street's expectation looks (LOW / MODERATE / HIGH / INSUFFICIENT) with brief reasons — not a 0–100 score.
QW Setup
Setup classification — Street supported, upside/downside tension, consensus fragile, no strong edge, or insufficient evidence. Not a buy/sell call. Missing evidence is stated explicitly. When a legitimate Street KPI consensus is available, it may be used as independent evidence; otherwise the base methodology continues.
Prospective track record
Pre-earnings freezes are immutable and graded only after results. Historical research diagnostics are never mixed into prospective accuracy. Small N is disclosed — we do not claim edge from tiny samples.
Insufficient evidence is a valid answer
Quarter Winner will often return insufficient evidence. That is intentional. No Street KPI consensus is also valid — implied operating requirements still run where defensible.