Company research
ETSY
Etsy, Inc.
Target quarter: Q3 2026 · Earnings date TBD
At a glance · QW setup
Confidence: Medium
The QW Revenue Estimate ($667.2M) looks reasonably consistent with the operating evidence we have.
QW Revenue Estimate
$667.2M
Named provider observation · Zacks Consensus Estimate · checked 2026-08-24 · -1.6% YoY
Revision: Unknown
No named-provider KPI estimate for this quarter
Operating requirement
Required GMS at management take-rate outlook: ~$2.6B
Evidence
No material independent evidence listed at this cutoff.
Coverage
- Usable management indication
- Direct Street segment KPI consensus
QW Revenue Estimate
Revenue expectation
$667.2M
QW Revenue Estimate · 2026Q3 · -1.6% YoY
A named-provider quarterly revenue observation — not a claim that every vendor publishes one identical “Wall Street consensus.”
- Source
- Zacks Consensus Estimate
- Period
- 2026Q3 / ending 2026-09
- Contributing estimates
- 10
- Observed
- 2026-08-24
- Last verified
- 2026-08-24
- Revision
- Unknown
Operating identity
How this company's revenue is modeled
Etsy’s reported revenue is driven by gross merchandise sales (GMS) — the value of goods sold on the marketplace — and the take rate, the percentage of GMS Etsy keeps as revenue. Quarter Winner translates a revenue estimate into the GMS volume (and take-rate path) that would be required at that monetization level.
net_sales ≈ gms_m × (take_rate_pct / 100)
- Management sometimes guides marketplace-only GMS, which is not identical to consolidated GMS.
- Take rate is not forecast — scenarios anchor on reported or management-stated rates.
- Does not invent take-rate forecasts
- Marketplace-only GMS is not substituted for consolidated GMS
Required operating performance
What that estimate requires
A verified revenue estimate is an outcome. Below is what the underlying business would have to deliver for that estimate to be consistent with the registered operating model.
Street revenue 667.2 implies required GMS ~2566.2 at 26% (management outlook). Management marketplace GMS outlook 2530–2580M; hurdle vs guidance: inside guidance range. Identity n=32, median |error| 0.2%.
Model confidence: High · historical n=32
- Required GMS at management take-rate outlook: ~$2.6B (about $2.7B–$2.9B) · Calculated requirement
- Last reported GMS (2026Q2): ~$2.6B · Last reported actual
- Last reported take rate (2026Q2): ~+25.9% (about +23.3%–+24.9%) · Last reported actual
Scenario breakdown
- required gms at latest take rate · Calculated requirement → Required GMS (identity, at last reported take rate): $2.6B
- required gms at trailing median take rate · Calculated requirement → Required GMS (identity, trailing median take rate): $2.7B
- required gms at mgmt take rate · Calculated requirement → Required GMS (identity, at management take-rate outlook): $2.6B
- required take rate at mgmt gms mid · Calculated requirement → Required take rate (identity, at management GMS mid): +26.1%
- required take rate at mgmt gms high · Calculated requirement → Required take rate (identity, at management GMS high): +25.9%
Management guidance
Management outlook (target quarter)
Forward outlook from the latest shareholder letter — not last quarter's reported actuals.
- Management guidance Q3 Etsy marketplace GMS outlook (continuing operations): $2.5B–$2.6B · as of 2026-08-05
Scope: etsy marketplace continuing operations
- Management guidance Q3 take-rate outlook (~issuer approximate): +26.0% (approximate) · as of 2026-08-05
Scope: continuing operations
Comparison
Revenue estimate vs management
- Street requires (at mgmt take rate)
- $2.6B
- Management GMS range
- $2.5B – $2.6B
- Classification
- Inside Guidance Range
- Scope
- COMPARABLE WITH LIMITATION
Street's implied GMS hurdle falls inside management's guided range — consensus volume requirement looks supported by management.
This is not a beat/miss prediction — it compares the revenue estimate's implied volume hurdle to management's stated GMS range.
Quarter Winner reading
How to read this setup
Supports
No material supporting evidence listed.
Against / uncertainty
No material opposing evidence listed.
- Some dispersion, revision, or sensitivity evidence elevates fragility
- High–low range 7.01% of consensus
Still missing
- Usable management indication
Since last earnings
Current Evidence
No material verified change since last earnings. Context below does not change required operating performance.
investors.etsy.com
Etsy executives participated in a webcast fireside chat at the Canaccord Genuity 46th Annual Growth Conference in Boston.
Directional management commentary; no quantitative guidance change.
Model confidence
How reliable the operating model is
High — The operating relationship is highly stable historically.
Historical check: n=32 · median residual 0.2%
Latest reported
Last quarter actuals
- Last reported actual Last reported GMS (2026Q2): $2.6B
- Last reported actual Last reported take rate (2026Q2): +25.9%
Limitations
Scope & evidence caveats
- Identity model uses consolidated gms_m KPI matched to reported net sales.
- Issuer Q3 outlook labels GMS as Etsy marketplace on a continuing-operations basis.
- Depop sale closed in Q3 2026; forward marketplace GMS outlook is economically aligned with continuing operations, but KPI history still mixes pre-sale consolidated definitions.
- Does not forecast take rate — scenarios use last-reported, trailing, or verified management guidance only
- Consolidated gms_m KPI used for identity validation; marketplace GMS guidance is not silently substituted
- Management marketplace GMS outlook is comparable with explicit scope limitation vs consolidated KPI history
- No intra-quarter observed GMS or take rate — only last-reported actuals and management outlook
- No intra-quarter observed GMS or take rate — only last-reported actuals and management outlook are shown for the target quarter.
Sources & methodology
Detailed provenance for Street, guidance, operating history, and Current Evidence. Setup classification is not a buy or sell call.
- Revenue estimate (2026Q3): Zacks Consensus Estimate · source · observed 2026-08-24 · verified 2026-08-24
- Management guidance: 2026-08-05
- Operating model: kpi:gms_m
- Operating model: kpi:take_rate_pct
- Operating model: street_consensus · link
- Current Evidence: 2026-08-12 · original
- How Quarter Winner works →