Company research
DUOL
Duolingo, Inc.
Target quarter: Q3 2026 · Earnings date at snapshot: 2026-11-04
At a glance · QW setup
Confidence: Low
Evidence does not support a clear disagreement with the QW Revenue Estimate ($302.2M).
QW Revenue Estimate
$302.2M
Named provider observation · Zacks Consensus Estimate · checked 2026-08-24 · +11.2% YoY
Revision: Unknown
No named-provider KPI estimate for this quarter
Operating requirement
Latest bookings (2026Q2): ~$289.1M
Evidence
- CaveatBookings accel -33.11 pp vs Street required -7.1 pp
Coverage
- Eligible operating evidence vs Street's requirement
- Direct Street segment KPI consensus
QW Revenue Estimate
Revenue expectation
$302.2M
QW Revenue Estimate · 2026Q3 · +11.2% YoY
A named-provider quarterly revenue observation — not a claim that every vendor publishes one identical “Wall Street consensus.”
- Source
- Zacks Consensus Estimate
- Period
- 2026Q3 / ending 2026-09
- Contributing estimates
- 6
- Observed
- 2026-08-24
- Last verified
- 2026-08-24
- Revision
- Unknown
Operating identity
How this company's revenue is modeled
Duolingo recognizes subscription revenue over time, so quarterly bookings and revenue diverge. Quarter Winner uses a calibrated bookings-to-revenue factor (β) estimated from recent history — not an exact quarterly identity. A revenue estimate is translated into required bookings at that β.
net_sales ≈ bookings_m × β (β = trailing median rev/bookings)
- β is a simple calibrated factor; seasonal recognition can shift quarter to quarter.
- Paid subscribers and DAU are context — they are not the primary V1 revenue bridge.
- No exact bookings=revenue identity due to deferred recognition
- β is a simple calibrated factor — seasonal; confidence capped
Required operating performance
What that estimate requires
A verified revenue estimate is an outcome. Below is what the underlying business would have to deliver for that estimate to be consistent with the registered operating model.
Street revenue 302.2 implies required bookings ≈ Street/β with β≈0.975 (wf MAE 7%).
Model confidence: Low · historical n=16
- Latest bookings (2026Q2): ~$289.1M
- Calibrated revenue/bookings factor β: ~0.98
Scenario breakdown
- required bookings at latest recognition beta → Required bookings: $312.3M
- required bookings at trailing median recognition beta → Required bookings: $306.6M
- required bookings at full sample median beta → Required bookings: $309.9M
Management guidance
What management says
Direct guidance
Explicit quarterly revenue guidance midpoint
Target period: 2026Q3
- Range
- $302M – $302M
- Mid / point
- $302M
- Vs QW Revenue Estimate
- -0.1%
- As of
- 2026-08-05
Quarter Winner reading
How to read this setup
Supports
No material supporting evidence listed.
Against / uncertainty
- Bookings accel -33.11 pp vs Street required -7.1 pp
- Street coverage and sensitivity do not show elevated fragility
- 6 analysts on consensus
Still missing
- Eligible operating evidence vs Street's requirement
Since last earnings
Current Evidence
No material verified change since last earnings. Context below does not change required operating performance.
sec.gov
Stephen C. Chen, General Counsel of Duolingo, Inc., disposed of 1,024 shares of Class A Common Stock on August 17, 2026, at $129.13 per share, to satisfy tax withholding obligations on vested restricted stock units.
Verified external context; does not change required operating performance.
Natalie Glance, Chief Engineering Officer of Duolingo, Inc
Natalie Glance, Chief Engineering Officer of Duolingo, Inc., sold 2,751 shares of Class A Common Stock on August 17, 2026, for tax withholding related to vested restricted stock units.
Verified external context; does not change required operating performance.
investors.duolingo.com
Duolingo acquired London-based animation studio Animade to strengthen user engagement and product experience.
Potentially supportive of the revenue setup; no quantitative guidance change.
investors.duolingo.com
Duolingo appointed Sallie Krawcheck to its Board of Directors and the Audit, Risk and Compliance Committee.
Verified external context; does not change required operating performance.
investors.duolingo.com
Duolingo reaffirmed its full-year 2026 bookings growth guidance of 10-12% year-over-year and revenue growth guidance of 15-18% year-over-year.
Management reiterated the existing range; core setup unchanged.
Model confidence
How reliable the operating model is
Low — The relationship passes minimum historical validation but carries meaningfully greater model uncertainty.
Historical check: n=16 · median residual 3.8%
Latest reported
What the business last delivered
- Bookings
$289.1M
2026Q2 · YoY +7.9%
- Paid subscribers
12.7M
2026Q2 · YoY +16.5%
Sources & methodology
Detailed provenance for Street, guidance, operating history, and Current Evidence. Setup classification is not a buy or sell call.
- Revenue estimate (2026Q3): Zacks Consensus Estimate · source · observed 2026-08-24 · verified 2026-08-24
- Management guidance: 2026-08-05
- Operating model: kpi:bookings_m
- Operating model: street_consensus · link
- Current Evidence: 2026-08-17 · original
- Current Evidence: 2026-08-17 · original
- Current Evidence: 2026-08-13 · original
- Current Evidence: 2026-08-10 · original
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